richvargus

  Here is how Dr Richard A Vargus connects crime data to daily fear. The numbers that changed the streets In his book Time to Return Law and Order to the American People, Vargus starts with simple math. If you drop violent crime from 2,000 cases to 800, that is 1,200 fewer serious offences. A 60 percent decline. Declining crime = safe communities. But if that same city later climbs from 800 to 1,300, that is 500 more violent crimes. A 62.5 percent increase off the "safe" baseline, even though it is still 35 percent below the original 2,000. Politicians highlight the 35 percent. Residents feel the extra 500. That gap between charts and lived experience is what he calls the slide from CompStat to chaos. How CompStat Became the Brain of Tough Policing CompStat, in Vargus's analysis, was never meant to be a buzzword. It was a hard-edged information engine. Every robbery, burglary, car theft and shooting were logged, mapped and updated quickly. Commanders atte...